Prize

........... Recipient of the 2010 MacDougal Irving Prize for Truth in Market Manipulation ...........

April 9, 2015

Caveat Emptor


     Having apprenticed under professionals managing portfolios before, during, and after the Great Depression, MacDougal still carries their perspective: his investment-grade universe includes only common stocks of powerhouse corporations with squeaky clean financials that, in the worst of times, will improve their domination by feeding on the carcasses of competitors caught chasing growth instead of survivability.  Last time we looked, there were substantially fewer than 100 investment-grade securities around.

     Exxon Mobil is one of those names.  So is Royal Dutch Shell.  And the oil patch may well be entering one of those times.  The recent Royal Dutch merger offer triggered a slew of media pieces appropriately looking to Exxon to start bottom feeding soon.  What fascinates MacDougal, however, are some of the other names coming across his screen.  Typically, Wall Street sucks investors into a growth-is-everything viewpoint, ignoring the lessons of 1929, and they're at it once again.  The absence of balance sheet analysis here is difficult to excuse. 

     Royal Dutch Shell and Exxon have the financial muscle to better themselves substantially in the current environment, particularly if industry weakness continues for a while.  Elsewhere, you may want to ask the same question MacDougal has been screaming all over the office the last couple of days.  What on earth makes these a$$&@!&$ think that outfit is going to even be around?